The angle of incidence is not equal to the angle of reflection

Initial purpose of this chapter was to assess the impacts of the global economy low carbon transition on Russia’s economic development. After February 24th, it was modified to reflect also long-term impacts of imposed sanctions. The analysis below shows that Russia may lose 10-11 years of economic growth. The 2021 GDP level is expected to be back only in 2031-2032. By 2050, Russia will have lost about 50% of the previously (late 2021) expected potential GDP. In 2060, Russia’s GDP will be only 6-44% up from 2021. The share of Russia in the global GDP thus will be shrinking to 0.7-0.9% in 2060, when estimated in exchange rates, and to 1.3-1.7%, if estimated in PPP. This drives Russia out to the middle or to the end of the second dozen in the list of major economies, making it hardly visible in the global 2060 economic landscape, shadowed by such giants of the time as China, India, and USA. This will deeply undermine Russia’s economic security, political role, and the military potential. The share of oil and gas GDP, after some temporal growth in 2022-2024, will be fast declining towards 2030 and stay low thereafter with a subsequent decline in the influence of the oil and gas elites, growing dependency of the state on other businesses, and gradually dissipating illusions of its omnipotence with a real democracy replacing the decorative one. All these processes are expected to be delayed, as the current elites will do anything to keep their power and influence.